tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20065905292963509342024-02-08T09:45:51.623-08:00MWU / School for Complexity Science & EconomicsComplexity Economics and Agent Based ModelingUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-17745879021343204692018-05-22T15:56:00.001-07:002018-05-22T15:56:30.664-07:00Objects in Mirror are Closer Than They AppearBy Michael Lewitt<br />
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Excerpted from The Credit Strategist<br />
February 1, 2017<br />
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" The fundamental ontological error has been to model the economy as a relatively simple machine, whose properties can thus be known and controlled by its policy operator. In reality, it is an evolving system, too complex to be either well understood or closely controlled. Moreover, it is a system in which stocks and 'imbalances' build up over time in response to monetary stimulus. This really makes future prospects totally path dependent, and we are on a bad path."<br />
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William White*<br />
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Complex systems are also self-adaptive, which means they are capable of adjusting to changing conditions. But these adjustments are often sudden and violent and systems don't return to their previous state, leaving those trying to manage them with a new reality for which old models and modes of thinking are inadequate.<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-12894614523366963852010-12-23T09:39:00.000-08:002010-12-23T09:39:52.504-08:00The Harvard MisStep - When Smart guys get it wrong - and the effectsUNITY of purpose - not to generate returns per unit of risk but to Fund the Capital Projects and organic growth of the Uninersity - Forgot their purpose - and look at what happened - the True Cost is Unkown - wealth Management and the Origin of Wealth..Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-16448907311797140892010-12-14T15:59:00.001-08:002010-12-14T15:59:57.175-08:00Companies at war with their CustomersUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-4053867033692446162010-12-14T14:15:00.001-08:002010-12-14T14:15:48.666-08:00Living. In the m worldUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-53840124054575500882010-10-22T10:51:00.000-07:002010-10-22T10:51:48.346-07:00The modelIt's about building systems (units) that can evolve on their own.Enterprise reat a car..And the creating the culture that allows and forsters that -toward a common purpose - value to the front end - because in the end that is what you are charging for that is your brand - product - your alpha. Then getting them to complent each other to make the whole greater than the sum of the parts.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-65311383110392033132010-10-11T08:19:00.001-07:002010-10-11T08:21:06.139-07:00It's not about getting people behind you to kiss your ass - it's about getting the people in front of you to kiss your assthat's how you move up in the line...Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-29147906505774710972010-10-03T10:27:00.000-07:002010-10-03T10:27:13.344-07:00Funding Maslows pyramidUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-20400701597483899992010-09-29T08:14:00.001-07:002010-09-29T08:14:41.723-07:00Our job - Increase the value of your stockUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-73972955630928466952010-09-29T08:02:00.001-07:002010-09-29T08:02:06.807-07:00The game is played agaist the box - all about responsibilityUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-53108686723694202352010-09-25T09:31:00.000-07:002010-09-25T09:31:02.426-07:00Modular Finance - Staying a step aheadIf you are reading it in the paper - it's too lateUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-45450386465069432312010-09-23T10:29:00.001-07:002010-09-23T10:29:55.495-07:00When it comes to the Banks and Brokers.....A fiduciary Culture and model is insonsistent with their business model.....Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-9938037821304220322010-09-03T08:43:00.001-07:002010-09-03T08:45:48.338-07:00What you have is a trillion dollar industry built on outdated investment assumptions...and the fact that many are unaware of this just underscores the point.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-52058572963162962712010-08-20T08:14:00.001-07:002010-08-20T08:23:06.482-07:00Financial Dissonance and Modular FinanceLinear and non-linear systemsUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-12100053643089769222010-08-20T07:23:00.000-07:002010-08-20T08:03:45.599-07:00The reality is we are going somewhere New - it is not deterministic it is evolutionThink of the two sides of life dreamd aspirations the master plan and 2 how you finance that plan<br />
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Think of germany think of the soviet union is that what they intended....it happen because the two worlds could not co-exist. Two sides to every story and reality is usually somewhere inbetween...<br />
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Champagne taste and a beer pocketbook etc etc. the ying and the yang complexity and chaos order out of chaos.<br />
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Where we go depends on the fork in the road right now as PIMCO says they are to focused on cyclical recovery that cannot happen we nee structrual change the odds change as decisions are made.<br />
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The right brain is ok as long as the Left(money) is OK if not there is financial dissonance that's how Obama came to power change occurs during periods of financial dissonance and so do markets move these things don't matter til they matter.....brenda and eddie....nobody cares if they believe things will work they way out yhat is what markets are supposed to do.....but when they cash stops there is a reset....a restructuring and that to is part of the mechanismUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-77591560546810836332010-08-18T15:06:00.000-07:002010-08-18T15:06:38.899-07:00Financial Times Saturday 14, 2010Delfation: Just how big a risk is it?<br />
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"if the mindset in washington doesn't move fro a cyclical to a more structural approach to grapple with fundamental problems, The probability of deflation increases"<br />
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Mohamed El-ErianUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-29566599063203460142010-07-27T06:39:00.000-07:002010-07-27T06:39:05.032-07:00In an Evolutionary Phase - Allboats don't Rise - That's one reason wht you have this bipolar marketThese things don't matter til they matterUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-17488719869310646432010-07-25T10:26:00.001-07:002010-07-25T10:26:32.073-07:00Living in the Modular WorldWe are not living in the Modular World - as it transforms itselfUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-56445404693370776112010-07-25T10:24:00.001-07:002010-07-25T10:24:53.613-07:00The modular world is about how you line up your planets or how they are aligned against youUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-63842628036501801642010-07-24T11:19:00.000-07:002010-07-24T11:20:51.388-07:00A two Tier WorldModern - Thinking The System will Take Care of You - Going in the Army - Going to School - <br />
What ever will be will be ....Que Sera, Sera<br />
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Modular World Make your way control your own DestinyUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-65283918211178888312010-07-24T11:10:00.000-07:002010-07-24T11:10:59.922-07:00The Next Phase is Being DefinedThe tug between the Modern World (what exists/dominates today) and what is next an improvement The Modular World.<br />
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Ie economics /FP applying new concepts being bastardized by the Modern World.Relativity/Relativism FP/needs analysis for a sales Model - A new way to sell.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-26931843463306337852010-07-20T12:18:00.000-07:002010-07-20T12:20:36.109-07:00The Arrow and the Ring"A proper understanding of the dynamics of capitalism requires us to recognize both the long term trends that change the world and the financial cycles that sometimes exaggerate and overwhelm these secular trends. To put this more graphically, history and economics are driven by a rivalry between what can be called the arrow of progress and the ring of repetition. I choose these metaphors because the arrow and the ring are among the most pervasive symbols in the mythologies of any nation. Every civilization has understood the dualistic interplay between change and permanence, between the male and the female principles, between the yang and yin of creativity and preservation. And this creative Tension, is as much a driving force in politics and economics as it is in every other aspect of human psychology."<br />
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CAPITALISM 4.0Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-81761109591181037312010-07-20T11:27:00.000-07:002010-07-20T11:28:54.643-07:00The Financial Industry is Making the same Mistake as GMWhat's good for GM is good for the country.<br />
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AMPM - A fancy name for common senseUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-4391014200192986852010-07-14T08:50:00.000-07:002010-07-14T10:51:21.530-07:00MPT is an investment strategy for an Organic Growth PhaseIt's a losing strategy for an evolutionary Phase<br />
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The components are fixed income, cash, and equity no matter how you boil it down.<br />
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It is the equity component that needs to be restructured the "risk" portion the "Risk Trade". In MPT the risk/reward is out of balance......on the equity side, there is no way for it to adapt to structural Change....It is reactive in nature, backward looking, when it comes to investing this is wrong. In fixed income investing you move to the highest yield (price).. In equity investing you move to opportunity not price..Price is often an Illusion of Value. Equity investing requires a proactive process and notion of the future.<br />
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Asset backed securities are not pure income vechicles that is where things went wrong there is and equity component to that. You lose your principal when the cash flow stops and there was no equity buffer between the renenus and the principal, Alan GreenSpan<br />
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MPT is limited in it's ability to adapt. It cannot adapt to all market conditions. It is to simplistis and only wirls in a bell jar. Under certain ASSUMPTIONS - which a not reality.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-45231807625099253472010-07-14T07:47:00.000-07:002010-07-14T07:52:11.441-07:00Benchmark investing misses the purpose - decoupled from realityPrivate investors usually have a purpose and the requires a more reliable outcome driven approach.<br />
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I want to get here so i can do this....Is the the best way to get there...<br />
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Benchmark investing is giving way to outcome focused investing...Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2006590529296350934.post-19189242500652196932010-07-13T08:09:00.001-07:002010-07-13T08:09:51.394-07:00The World is Evolving - Our mission is to Get you to The Next Level...,.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0